However, with Covid, now that we don’t have those multiple data streams to rely on, it’s harder to say what is happening ,” he said.
“With seasonal flu, we have of course a certain amount of predictability with the many years of data. Prof Rowland Kao, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, also highlighted the decline in surveillance. “What worries me most is if we get a repeat of the last winter NHS crisis this winter again, with Covid, flu and RSV all hitting around the same time,” said Pagel. Such schemes have recently been cut in England and Wales. “We might see the wave continue to grow, and grow faster, in September,” she said.Īs well as public health measures including reintroducing high-quality masks within healthcare settings, Pagel said she would support bringing back the nationwide infection survey published by the Office for National Statistics for autumn and winter, as well as expanding it to cover flu and RSV.įailing that, she said, wastewater monitoring should be reinstated across the UK as a cheaper alternative that is used in many countries to track Covid prevalence and variants.
With the autumn coming on and people returning to school and work, Covid pressures may increase, Pagel added. Now experts have said the situation is leaving the country in the dark about how Covid may play out in the months ahead.Ĭhristina Pagel, a professor of operational research at University College London, said a new wave of Covid appeared to be under way – possibly driven by waning immunity, new variants of Omicron, and factors including poor weather keeping people inside.
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